Well…I can’t imagine this morning there are any more stickers and flags going onto Susan B. Anthony’s headstone, now that it’s all over. Like most Americans, I stayed up last night to watch the returns and, like half of America, I turned the TV off by midnight. By then (and really since about 10pm Eastern) it was pretty clear who won. To me, the stickers on Anthony’s grave headstone was the most tragic optic of Election Day 2016: so women (and men, too) thought another level of the glass-ceiling was as good as smashed. The perils of making the Oval Office an indicator of progress for women, was always a risky proposition. But there is always 2020 or 2024.
A lot of people got it wrong yesterday. And a lot of analysis will happen in the coming days. I felt, deep down in those dark and honest places in our hearts, that what we had were two candidates with issues and flaws that were fairly novel and unprecidented. And you had the extremes of right and left supporters lining-up — leaving a real potential upset wrought on by the middle and undecided voters. Plenty of room for things to swing one way or the other, this despite people like Nate Silver erroneously giving Clinton a 90% path to victory. /eyeroll
I felt Donald Trump had a real path to victory as far back as July, because it seemed that the Democrat and Clinton campaign surrogates really had a problem of overconfidence. I’m sure Clinton’s campaign staff would disagree with me, but then I would point them to the states and counties that they never went to. They may have laughed that Trump went to Texas (our state was in the bag, woefully uncontested), but he and Pence also went to Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. A lot. I didn’t see that from the other side. So as conflicted as Trump has been (“Russia, if you’re listening” really bothered me, as it does other Americans I’m sure…) you cannot ignore the hustle. You just can’t.
So I congratulate GOP on their victory, and I would advise the new President-Elect to govern with the understanding that 2+ million more people voted for his opponent. Although Congress is in one party’s hands after this election — a Trump Presidency will most certainly still operate with a divided nation. If it angers you that 2 million more voted for Clinton, maybe FINALLY take-up Electoral College reform and our winner-take-all setup that it creates. Blame it on redistricting/Gerrymandering. But most of all, blame it on real consequential miscalculations by the Democratic party and their addiction to identity politics.
A lot of pundits allegedly smarter than me will claim their reasons as to how Trump won. But I doubt this election won’t be fully understood until it gets viewed from a distance by historians many years down the line. From a marketing campaign perspective, last-minute FBI investigations aside, the “Crooked Hillary” and “Lock Her Up” rhetoric engines landed VERY effective branding. They alone hurt Hillary 5% in the polls these past 3 months, and these branding techniques worked in many working-class counties in states still hard-hit by the Great Recession.
A lot of people in working-class families in the middle of America felt ignored the past 6+ years, and I believe they had every right to be mad. I don’t think Clinton made the efforts to really engage with this group of voters. I think her campaign was playing it by the numbers, and just assuming she didn’t have that voting bloc and moved on to where she could win. But numbers games didn’t work here in 2016, and I think it will be determined that was also foolish of Clinton to not put Wisconsin or Pennsylvania on her tours the last 2 months of the campaign. Michigan didn’t get on her agenda until it was clear Trump was surging there, and by then it was too late.
It’s my sincere hope that Donald Trump surprises everyone. I did not vote for him and, while I share in others’ disappointment, I am a believer that the Office of the President makes the man, not the other way around. I hope that Trump’s typical way of speaking to his ardent supporters, and the rhetoric of his campaign, were all just a ruse and now some kind of big “pivot” everyone was gabbing about (and begging for) over the summer will now happen. I personally have my doubts, but I choose optimism. And if the President-elect turns out to be a swift and wise leader on the economy, security, and other issues then I will support him. A well-organized and effective Presidency really would be the only way to repay the American people, for what has been a horrible sh*t-show of an election.
Update: It appears in the proceeding weeks that more than 3 million popular votes were tallied for Clinton. This hasn’t been acknolwedged by the Trump transition team, and probably won’t be.