Let’s forget the higher price of Model S cars for a moment and look at its long-term costs, broken down using the dark arts of “Teslanomics” or, as I like to call it, rationalizing.
Using my old 20mpg BMW as a reference:
15,000 miles/yr divided by 20mpg = 750 gallons of gas/year:
@ $2.50/gallon x 750 = $1,875 per year spent on gas. @ $3.00/gallon x 750 = $2,250 per year spent on gas. (and Exxon predicts $3.50+ gas by mid-to-late 2016)
x 5 years:
@ $2.50/gal = $9,375 over 5 years. ($18,750 after 10 years!!) @ $3.00/gal = $11,250 over 5 years. ($22,500 after 10 years!!)
Cost of electricity during the above time:
(natl avg is 11 cents/kWh cost) x 300 Wh/mile (avg EPA) = 3.3 cents per mile
So 15,000 miles/year = $495 per year on electricity. x 5 years = $2,475 spent on electricity in 5 years.
Total savings — Gas cost minus electricity:
2.50/gallon: $9,375 — $2,475 = $6,900 saved over 5 yrs. ($13,800 in 10 yrs) 3.00/gallon: $11,250 — $2,475 = $8,775 saved over 5 yrs. ($17,550 in 10 yrs)
So charging an EV uses electricity equal to drying 3 or 4 extra loads of laundry per week, and saves me some $8700+ on gas over 5 years. Even better, some of my electric charging will be $0 since quick-charges on major highways are free, for the life of the car (Tesla Supercharger).
Put another way, take current TX gas prices ($2.25 per gallon) and consider a 265 mile trip:
My old BMW at 20 mpg would run $29.81 to travel 265 miles. My wife’s CR-V averages 34 mpg runs $17.53 to travel 265 miles. A Tesla using Superchargers along the highway is $0.00 to travel 265 miles. A Tesla home-charging at 11 cents/kWh will run $8.75 to travel 265 miles.
Electrical charging compared to gas at $2.25 per-gallon is one thing, but AAA and energy companies predict gas will rise well north of $3.00 per-gallon in a few months. I can only imagine what I would save if gas rose even higher towards $5/gallon in 5 or 10 years. I don’t wish that on anyone, but if it happens EVs will be established and able to help.
And I’m not even factoring in cheaper maintenance costs here, which should not be ignored: EVs have fewer moving parts to break compared to a gas car. EVs only consume new tires, wiper blades, and washer fluid. Sure, brakes and battery coolant are a maintenance item but, due to how regen works in EVs, Tesla owners report brakes going triple the lifespan before replacement. Tesla’s electric motor could run 600,000 miles or more before it needs service. The battery pack could get replaced 2 or 3 times before the EV motor wears out! Almost zero-maintenance, and cheap to “re-fuel”.
And about that battery pack: it’s designed to be fully-replaceable. Each decade you could double the electric range on the car as cheaper and more efficient batteries come out. Think about that for a second: how many cars actually get more efficiency and range as they get older?! After Tesla’s Gigafactory launches, it’s expected that Model S battery upgrades could be a regular thing. Which is kind of amazing.
Does Teslanomics or any other math voodoo justify a Tesla for me? Heck no! I am primarily getting the car for comfort and sporty drive. These are things gas cars also offer, yes, but this car just happens drive like a Porsche yet is as energy-efficient as a Chevy Volt.
When I factor everything in, my car’s total costs over a decade can be viewed as a net positive (if I keep it that long). The longer you keep a Model S, the more it does save you money. And the savings window arrives much faster with Tesla’s coming Model 3 car. So anybody saying you don’t save money with a Tesla, or any other EV, is dead-wrong.
In the end, though, it’s another expensive sports-sedan and, for most people, the cost is too high right now. I am hoping early-adopters will continue to help speed Tesla’s $35,000 Model 3 to market (before EV tax credits). Because when that happens, you won’t need the Teslanomics to quickly see and enjoy the savings EVs offer.